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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Bad Breadth

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

11/20/2009 7:00 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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We made a low in the market one year ago. If my memory serves me correctly that was when it was announced Tim Geithner would be Treasury secretary. And the market celebrated. Thursday they weren't so happy with Mr. Geithner as he was asked to become one of the unemployed by some folks in Congress.

So it seems the market has a love-hate relationship with our Treasury secretary. In February, he came out with some stimulus plan and the market clearly hated it as it headed south and never looked back. So if we were to put Mr. Geithner into market terminology we would probably say we bought the rumor and sold the news!

The good news is that the number of stocks making new lows didn't expand. Well, not too much. There were fewer Thursday than there was a week ago on Nasdaq. The bad news is that breadth simply stinks.

For months I would begin each commentary and note how terrific breadth was ; I find these days I start each commentary with how awful it is. Bad breadth doesn't help a market. Yes, divergences can go on for a long time. In 1987, we started diverging back in the spring but that didn't matter until October when the market headed south in a big way. And in the late 1990s breadth sagged as the market rocked ever higher into 2000 and then it peaked.

So the fact that breadth stinks isn't always an urgent matter. What bothers me is that the sentiment didn't exactly turn bearish Thursday. Yes, the put/call ratio chimed in at 100%. But gosh, it was 101% last Thursday so that's not exactly what I'd call a big jump in fear.

And the CBOE Volatility Index didn't exactly get jumpy either.

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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in any stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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