DOW
loading...
NASDAQ
loading...
S&P
loading...




Action Alerts PLUS
RealMoney Silver
Market Movers
Stocks Under $10
Options Alerts
Breakout Stocks
View All


Now, enjoy the good life every day!

RSSRSS FEEDS
PODPODCASTS


RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
Print This Story

Wary of Sentiment Indicators

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

8/13/2009 6:03 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer
 
Try Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
CLICK HERE NOW

 
Maybe sentiment indicators are as wrong, or at least stayed wrong, as they did during the selloff? The first important indicator I follow for sentiment, the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio, shows 49% bulls. That's way too high. The logic: Everyone's in the pool. There are no buyers left. The second sentiment indicator I follow is the S&P 500's oscillator, which updates, like Helene Meisler's, every night.

We are higher than +6 on the oscillator, and I don't like to buy a market that's more than +5, because I have been scalded more times than not when I do (although it doesn't ever call the exact top).

Both sentiment indicators together are at dangerous levels that should produce selling.

But during the selloff we reached extremes in the number of bears and in oversold oscillator numbers, and they just stayed at levels that have produced phenomenal rallies for a very long time. The oscillator was off the charts with double-digit negatives. There were the fewest bulls I can ever recall.

And it stayed that way and stayed that way and stayed that way.

What would happen is you would have these little gains up and then be pancaked again. You would have spurts, rallies and then lose more bulls and get more oversold soon after. If you used the traditional levels I have been taught to use, you got clobbered.

I am wondering if the exact opposite is happening now. We get overbought, we stay overbought. We get a lot of bulls, we keep a lot of bulls.

It's not something I like to bet on, which is why I expected more of a selloff than the 1.5% that we got earlier this week. But, again, that's par for the kind of gains we got in the bear market that ended in March.

Just something to worry about if you are getting too bearish and looking for too big a selloff. The indicators failed last time. Maybe history's repeating itself.

Random musings: Stories are again circulating that Vikram Pandit of Citigroup (C - commentary - Trade Now) is in trouble according to some sort of internal management review. I totally dispute these stories and think he is in the best shape since he took over the reins.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.


Know what you own: Cramer mentioned Citigroup. Related companies are U.S. Bancorp (USB - commentary - Trade Now), JPMorgan Chase (JPM - commentary - Trade Now), Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now), Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Trade Now), HSBC Holdings (HBC - commentary - Trade Now) and Bank of New York Mellon (BK - commentary - Trade Now).






 RELATED STORIES

Jim Cramer Blog
China Keeps Two Industrials in Play
8/12/2009 4:49 PM EDT
Despite drops in the freight index, Joy Global and Bucyrus keep rolling.

Jim Cramer Blog
Toll's Results Should Quiet the Doomsayers
8/12/2009 1:14 PM EDT
Cancellations are down, orders are up, and the bears are looking elsewhere.

Jim Cramer Blog
BofA Is Your Play on Housing and the Fed
8/12/2009 3:23 PM EDT
It's making money on all these transactions -- the prices don't matter.



Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon.com purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.



Brokerage Partners



Write us!
Order reprints of TSC articles.

TheStreet Premium Services
Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
Now any level of investor can trade right alongside a Wall Street pro — and enjoy 24/7 access to his portfolio! Learn More
Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver
The genius of Doug Kass + 5 Premium Services = an unrivaled group of expert fundamental analysts, technical analysts, and Wall Street observers. Learn More
Don Dion
NEW! Don Dion's ETF Action
A concise two-step strategy for learning and trading in this increasingly lucrative area of investing. For all levels of investors! Learn More
David Peltier
Stocks Under $10
David Peltier is ready to help you find affordable stocks under $10. Because they're so inexpensive, the payout could be enormous! Learn More
Bryan Ashenberg
Breakout Stocks
Bryan Ashenberg combines sophisticated screening software with eagle-eye analysis to find small and mid-caps ready to break out! Learn More

Investor Relations | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Conflicts Policy | Corrections | Internet Index | Advertise | FAQ
Site Map | Who's Who | Reader Feedback | Employment | Contact Us
RSSSubscribe to our RSS Feed
© 1996- TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved.
TheStreet.com's enterprise databases running Oracle are professionally monitored and managed by Pythian Remote DBA.